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Ken Applegate from Fisher Funds on doing business with the Chinese

April 27th, 2011 No comments

At Euroasia, we have the privelege of meeting talented New Zealanders who do amazing things in their day jobs. For today’s blog entry, we have Ken Applegate, who has been learning Mandarin with us since early last year to share his views on the Chinese economy, why he’s investing there, and his experience in working with the Chinese.

Ken is the Senior Portfolio Manager for the Fisher Funds International Fund, a specialist New Zealand-based fund manager with assets under management of NZ$1billion spread across more than 30,000 clients.  Thanks Ken for sharing your story with the Euroasia community.

 

Fisher

 

 

As a global investor we have the ability to invest anywhere in the world and our allocation to Chinese companies has ranged from 20-40% of the fund.  We have a long term structurally bullish view on the Chinese economy.  This is not just our opinion; it is based on fact and history.  China has been a global economic powerhouse more than once in history.  Countries like the US and the UK have dominated the world economy once before and even Rome was ‘great’ once.  Just a little more than 200 years ago China’s economy comprised approximately 1/3 of global GDP and it is on the rise again.  To quote Warren Buffett, a legendary investor, “the 19th century belonged to England, the 20th century belonged to the U.S., and the 21st century belongs to China.  Invest accordingly“.  I firmly believe most people underestimate how important this shift is and the significance of its implications.

China dominated the world economy 200 years ago

 

China_gdp

 

I have worked as a global fund manager for more than 15 years with the majority of my experience gained while living in California.  I first visited China in 2000, and I now travel to China 2-3 times per year.   In addition, I speak with Chinese companies and local investors/analysts on a weekly basis and often meet with Chinese companies when I attend investment conferences throughout Asia, especially in Singapore and Hong Kong.  I have described below two examples of investments made in China which highlight some of the many challenges I have encountered and learned from over the years.

I also believe in continued learning and my latest pursuit has been learning Mandarin.  I began taking a weekly class at Euroasia language school in Auckland in early 2010.  I have experienced first-hand the difference between speaking Chinese and thinking Chinese.  While I have spent a good deal of the last 10 years trying to understand the Chinese way of doing business, I decided that learning the language could be another way to bridge the gap between cultures.  Many Chinese attempt to learn English so out of respect why shouldn’t we attempt to learn the most widely spoken language in the world?

China’s future will be driven by urbanisation and the emerging middle class

 

China_urban

 

It is critical to understand that while China is one country there are significant regional differences.  One way to gain a holistic picture is to travel to a variety of locations throughout China.  While Shanghai and Beijing are the financial and political centres, they comprise less than 5% of the Chinese population.  The real future of China, in my opinion, lies in the emerging middle class so I have made an effort to travel to tier 2 and tier 3 cities.  In addition to Guangzhou in the south, I have been as far west as Chongqing and Chengdu and as far north as Changchun.  I like to visit similar locations every few years to see how things are developing.  The reason for my travel is to visit company management at their headquarters.  I have found they are much more open to a dialogue and it forms a lasting impression if a fund manager from New Zealand makes an effort to come and spend a day with them on their home turf.

This is the welcome I received from Cao Zhao Hui, the CEO of Wasion Group, when I visited them at their headquarters outside of Changsha in 2009

Ken_applegate

The first example is an investment that didn’t work out.  One way we generate our investment ideas is through quantitative screening of financial metrics.  We discovered a company called Dapai, China’s leading branded backpack and luggage company.  I was attracted to the company because of its leadership position in its industry and cheap valuation.  The valuation of the company was low because the company had made some decisions that did not fit the mold of a ‘typical’ high quality publicly traded company.

After significant research on the company and numerous conference calls with company management I believed that this was an investment worth pursuing.  We are strong believers in quality management so I travelled to Quanzhou, Fujian Province, to spend a day with the CEO and Chairman at their facility.  I also conducted research by interviewing customers at shopping malls (including the competition) to gauge the perception of the company and brand.

As mentioned previously the cheap valuation was due to subpar decisions the company had made in regards to how the stock and company was perceived.  I believed these decisions were made in naivety.  During my meeting with the CEO I highlighted how to change their perception which could lead to significant wealth creation.  I offered my assistance and facilitated a conversation with a public relations firm and numerous specialised brokers and made myself available for discussion on any decision-making if required.  They responded positively and we celebrated a fruitful day and good relationship over dinner.

I had continued conference calls with management and while the company did make some positive steps forward they were only baby steps.  Unfortunately the key decisions continued to be poor in spite of my advice.  This was frustrating as there was no logical rationale for the decisions.  The decisions were actually made for reasons other than purely financial reasons, which meant sacrificing their own business in the short term to maintain relationships with distributors.  I understand this is important, but it was still frustrating as management had committed to change.  While I do understand how Chinese think, I am ultimately a westerner, especially when it comes to business, and our way of decision-making does not always prevail.

Touring the Dapai factory with the CEO, Chen “Perry” Yong

 

Dapai

 

The second example involves a more positive outcome.  The company is China Automation Group, a leading company in safety equipment for the petrochemical and rail equipment industries.  It is similar in structure to the first example where my research and relationship was developed over a 6-month period.  The major difference in this example is that I already had relationships with a number of players in the rail equipment industry.  This added depth and meaning to my relationship with this company.

We first invested capital in China Automation Group in mid 2008 and while business for the company continued to be positive, the stock took a dive in 2008.  This was frustrating for the company and for me.  I remember meeting with Xuan Ruiguo, the Chairman of China Automation Group, in Hong Kong in October 2008 when the stock price was HK0.60/share.  To put this into context we bought our first shares at HK$2/share.  The good news is that now the shares are trading at more than Hk$6/share.  We showed our confidence and belief in the company by buying more shares and it was this day that defined our relationship.  I had breakfast with the Chairman in March this year and he recalled my support during that challenging time and said that he always has time for me.

Summary

I have always believed in a long term approach to investing and this is a mindset that is critical when it comes to doing business in China.  The best lessons I have learned have not come from reading books but from my own experiences on the ground.   This will continue to be the focus for me in the future.  We shouldn’t overestimate the ability to change others’ mindsets and this is not a sustainable outcome anyway.    We need to adapt if we are to conduct business in their country, and both parties in a relationship must be satisfied.  This requires a long term approach – it’s not just about trying to make a short term profit.

The best piece of advice I give people who want to try and understand China is to go there.  I tell them to spend some time in one of the big cities and then travel inland to a smaller city.  I have offered numerous times to provide assistance to those interested in an attempt to make the process seem less daunting.  Seeing is believing.  It takes time to develop an understanding and time to create relationships.  Confucius said “A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step”…and the long term rewards can be unlimited.

 

Posted via email from Euroasia

 

Interesting facts about Australia-China

February 4th, 2010 4 comments

DID YOU KNOW?

  • China is Australia’s largest two-way trading partner.
  • In 2008 there were 66,000 Chinese nationals studying in Australia, the largest contingent of Australia’s international student population.
  • Only 2.5% of Australian year 12 students study Chinese, and 94% of them are first language speakers

Source: Asia Education Foundation (2009) “An Australian curriculum for the 21st century”, winter 2009.

UK govt says schools should teach Mandarin to all teenagers

January 7th, 2010 1 comment

Every teenager should have the chance to learn Mandarin due to the growing importance of China in world events, according to the UK government. One in seven secondary schools, which teach pupils aged 11-16, currently offer Mandarin and Schools Secretary Ed Balls said he wanted to extend this through language partnerships between schools.

From the BBC website this week:

All secondary school pupils in England should have the chance to learn a less familiar language such as Mandarin, says Children’s Secretary Ed Balls.

Mandarin has become increasingly popular in schools – with one in seven now teaching the subject.

Making it more widely available is an “aspiration” rather than a pledge – and could mean schools and colleges sharing specialist language teaching staff.

Mr Balls highlighted the economic importance of learning languages.

As well as Mandarin, he pointed to the growing importance of Portuguese for trading with Brazil, Spanish in Argentina and Bahasa Indonesia in Indonesia.

Emerging economies

“A growing number of schools are now teaching Mandarin and in the coming years I think we will see this subject sitting alongside French, Spanish and German as one of the most popular languages for young people to learn,” said Mr Balls.

“In this new decade our ties with emerging economies like China will become even more important and it’s vital that young people are equipped with the skills which they need, and British businesses need too, in order to succeed in a rapidly-changing world,” he said.

So what is the New Zealand government’s stance?

Cool jobs available at Shanghai World Expo 2010

September 28th, 2009 2 comments

Anyone keen to work in Shanghai next year at the World Expo? NZTE are looking for people at the moment.  These are PAID positions, NOT internships. Key things to note:  You have to speak Mandarin AND English well. Also have to have valid NZ work visa, permanent residency or citizenship. I just received this email so just thought we should share this opportunity with everyone. Those of you who did not heed our advice to learn Mandarin can still do so… we have a few spots available for tomorrow’s intake or the 10-week Mandarin course starting 12 October. This is  a brilliant opportunity and would suit those thinking of an unconventional OE. Spending 6 months in Shanghai during the World Expo would not just be great for your CV, but will also be a good business networking opportunity. Who knows? Maybe you’ll meet a big shot who ends up offering you an expat package plus all the travel perks. That would be nice…

The World Expo to be held in Shanghai, China in 2010 will be the biggest in world history. During the six months the expo will be open – 1 May to 31 October 2010 – it is expected to draw 70 million visitors.

New Zealand Trade and Enterprise is now seeking a number of individuals who are enthusiastic about representing NZ on the world stage.  Positions available include;

Attendants (24 positions available)
The Attendants will be representing New Zealand with credit by making visitors feel welcome, and enhancing their experience through friendly and helpful interaction with them.

Receptionists (2 positions)
Based in the VIP entry to the pavilion, the Receptionist will be our first point of contact for guests and visitors and assist them around the pavilion as required.

Operations Manager
The Operations Manager will be responsible for managing the teams of attendants, and will co-ordinate the delivery of operational and technical support as required in order to maintain high standards of ‘host performance’ in the pavilion.

Relationships Manager
Part of the management team, the Relationships Manager will be responsible for the organisation of official visits including Ministerial and key sponsors to the pavilion.

If you are keen to be part of this landmark event, have a degree of fluency in both Mandarin and English and are available from April to October 2010 then please visit the NZTE Recruitment website for further information and to apply.

For information about New Zealand’s participation at the expo, please visit http://shanghaiexpo2010.nzte.govt.nz

Please note all applicants must have the right to work in New Zealand.

Applications close Monday, 12 October 2009 and must be submitted through the NZTE Careers Centre.  Late applications will not be accepted.

UK held back by poor language skills

September 11th, 2009 No comments

The UK will be held back as it seeks to emerge from recession unless it boosts the number of language graduates, campaigners say. From BBC this week:

The National Centre for Languages (Cilt) points to a worrying decline in the take-up of modern languages.

Cilt chief executive Kathryn Board said: “English is one of the great global languages but it will only take us so far. Our engagement with the non-English speaking world will remain superficial and one-sided unless we develop our capacity in other languages.”

Recent research from Cardiff Business School suggests improving languages could add an extra £21bn to the UK economy and that export businesses that use language skills boost their sales by 45%.

That’s not surprising,  simply because foreign-language capable staff make a big difference in terms of engagement with clients. At the moment, many Kiwi firms use amateur translators (friends and family or Google Translate) to process enquiries and then respond to clients. This is tedious and messages can get lost in translation. Worse still, many NZ companies do not even bother translating documents in dealing with foreign language speaking customers.  The expectation is that the buyer will deal with us in English.

Much has been said of New Zealand’s increasing trade engagement with China, especially since the signing of the FTA last year. But the reality is much of our trade with China involves NZ importing Chinese-made goods.  In terms of our exports to China, I wonder how much we really sell once we strip out the contribution of Fonterra (dairy products), Fletcher and Carter Holt (wood products). Partly our dismal performance in terms of exports offshore is due to our inability to service foreign-language speaking customers.

The reason English is so dominant globally as the language of trade  is partly because traders have always learnt the language of the paying customers.  Our arrogant attitude in assuming everyone speaks English has been tolerated when NZ firms are the customers (which is most of the time looking at our current account deficit). If on the other hand, we are selling to overseas customers, the onus is on us to speak the language of the customer. Failure to do so could result in us losing the deal to those who can. The scary (or exciting?) thing for New Zealand is that we are becoming far less dependent on our traditional English-speaking markets and more dependent on other foreign-language speaking markets.

The English are getting very worried because of the dramatic decline in the number of students taking up foreign languages at school. In 1997, 71% of England’s GCSE pupils (roughly NCEA Level 1 or School Certificate in NZ) took a foreign language, last year the rate was down to 44%. The equivalent rate in NZ is about 14% (8400 taking international languages out of approx 60K Year 11 students).

Cilt’s director of communications Teresa Tinsley said: “We are going to be held back as a nation as we seek to emerge from the economic downturn or recession.

“Companies are looking to recruit people with language skills and if they can’t find them amongst our home-grown graduates they will obviously bring in people from other countries to fill these gaps.

“We really need to buck up our ideas or we are going to be stuck in a mono-lingual world when everybody else is taking global opportunities.”

If the English believe they will be “held back” as a nation because “only” 44% of their kids learn a foreign language at high school, what about NZ where only 14% of our Form 5 kids do? There is simply no way we can be a serious player in world trade when we cannot even communicate at the most basic level with our customers. We are not even at first base.

Economist: China’s capital spend to overtake US

June 20th, 2009 No comments
Economist: China vs US capital spend

Economist: China vs US capital spend

The Economist this week reported China’s fixed-asset investment leapt by an astonishing 39% in the year to May, or by a record 49% in real terms.

This year China’s domestic investment in dollar terms is likely to exceed that in America (see chart).

There are concerns that a lot of the investment is directed by the Chinese government, and hence a lot of it would be wasted in pushing out overcapacity.

Investment amounted to 44% of GDP last year (compared with 18% in America), which many economists reckon was already too much. Worse still, as well as forcing state firms to invest, the government is directing state-owned banks to lend more, despite falling corporate profits.

The fastest expansion in spending has been in railways (up by 111% this year). As a developing country, China still lacks decent infrastructure; railways, in particular, have long been an economic bottleneck. Investment in roads, the power grid and water should also yield high long-term returns by allowing China to sustain rapid growth.

Further evidence that increasingly New Zealand will be engaging more with China as reliance on our traditional Western markets wane. The Americans will struggle with maintaining market dominance, and the developing economies will no doubt emerge stronger as a result of this recession.

Forum brings together Chinese and NZ businesspeople

March 25th, 2009 2 comments

Flat out at the moment putting this forum together. Counting down to next Monday. A few tickets left if you’re keen to come check this out.

The International Sustainable Cities Forum to be held on 30 March brings together government and business leaders from both China and New Zealand, in conjunction with the first anniversary of the signing of the China-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement.

The organisers have managed to secure the attendance of approximately 50 senior business and government leaders from China to attend this Forum. Amongst those attending is Wang Shi, the Godfather of Chinese real estate, Chairman of Vanke, with market capitalisation over US$10b, the largest property developer in China. Wang Shi is also the he oldest person in the world to complete the 7+2 (scaling the highest peaks on seven continents and to trek to the two poles). Many of the delegates are members of the China Urban Realty Association (CURA), and are well-known entrepreneurs and investors. Government delegations from Chang Xing County in Zhejiang Province and Wu Jin District in Jiangsu Province will also attend.

The Chinese participants are keen to look at partnership possibilities in New Zealand. They also want to better understand New Zealand’s capabilities in the area of sustainable development, especially given the significant challenges faced in China.

Continued >

Working with China – key tips

March 2nd, 2009 No comments

I came across a good story in the Summer issue of Bright, the NZTE magazine that goes out to people interested in international business.

Key stories in this issue include coping with the international credit crisis; insights on trading in the Middle East; tips on perfecting your sales pitch; the world’s growing bioeconomy; interviews with two members of NZTE’s China Advisory Board; carbon-labeling of exports; staying sharp in the adventure tourism market.

I want to highlight some salient points from the  interviews with the 2 members of NZTE’s China Advisory Board, who have in-depth China market knowledge and have lived and worked in China for a long period.

chinaIf you have some time, do read the article. The 2 guys interviewed are:

David Mahon, Chair of NZTE’s China Advisory Board.

  • Worked in Beijing for 25 years, heading a private  equity firm Mahon ChinaInvestment Management Limited.
  • He says change in China has been so great though that he says it’s largely his last two years’ of experience that are relevant to clients.

Andrew Browne, partner in a corporate communications advisory company, Beijing Brunswick Consultancy Ltd.

  • Advises clients on business development acquisition and listing strategies.
  • Previously worked for Reuters for 20 years and in 2007 won a Pulitzer Prize.
  • Grew up in Hong Kong.

Some quotes from Mahon:

  • “If you’re looking around the world and trying to see sources of global growth, China is one of the bright spots”
  • “Brand New Zealand is strong but we lack unity. There are all these meat producers and wine producers selling fragments. We need to approach in a unified way – then Brand New Zealand can be protected.”
  • “Language is important”. “I learned five words a day – no one can afford not to learn five words a day.”
  • “Too often you see companies with a product in China and it doesn’t do well. China demands products unique to China. For example, media is very culturally sensitive.”

Quotes from Browne:

  • “What is it that China needs? They need brand, technology, marketing and sales channels. You’ll see a very serious shopping expedition going out in search of all those things.”
  • “It’s a truism that China is a complicated country”
  • “We each have a vision which is only a tiny slice of the whole. For all New Zealand companies, it’s critical that they meet as many people as they can and get as broad a view as possible. The secret of doing well is asking the right questions.
  • The economy has been far too focused on exports and heavy industry. The low-end sweat-shops
    along the coast have resulted in excessive use of raw material and energy. In that sense, the old
    model has run its course and was looking unsustainable before the credit crisis hit.
  • “Would you advise a top Chinese company manager coming down to New Zealand to learn a little English? The notion you can send a senior manager to China without language is ridiculous. China is changing so quickly. Language gives you a feeling of engagement and
    learning about the market.”
  • “If you’re an architect, there is nowhere in the world doing building like China,”
  • “Take parks. China needs parks; in the West, all the parks are there. Companies in the West that have long become dormant have sprung back into life in China. China is not something
    to fear at all. China is creating vast opportunities across the manufacturing and service sectors.
  • “If you’re a banker, China is your big opportunity. I’ve watched the private equity funds
    of the world trooping through the lobby of CICC China Investment Corporation with their hats off.”

Also want to highlight an opportunity for Kiwi businesspeople to connect with Chinese investors and businesspeople at an upcoming event on 30 March 2009 – known as the International Sustainable Cities Forum. A delegation of high-level business and government leaders will be in New Zealand for 4 days to explore partnership opportunities.

It’s the perfect opportunity for those wanting to do business with the Chinese to attend.